. >> and military to deal with. >> if there's a theme to what we're saying, the united states has to play an active leadership role rather than passive leadership role. if the united states is passive and barack obama to a certain extent, represents democratic ideas na it should be more passive, this is the kind of world that results. i think places like egypt and syria were looking to the united states at least to have a presence in the transition, but we have not and we're seeing the results. >> paul: where do you think, other than -- where are the potential flash points in this coming year? >> liook, there are many. one of them, we don't talk about europe enough. the crisis in europe is going to get dramatically worse in portugal, spain, italy. there is dysfunction in the european union. that's one place to look. that's going to encourage russia to make moves of its own, you mentioned south africa. south africa is not going in a good direction, it's supposed to be the most optimistic spot on the african continent. so i don't see many bright spots, maybe new zealand, but some say t